The global sunflower oil market is being affected by declining sales in the European Union and the Black Sea region.
2025/12/04
Analysts at OilWorld in Germany are documenting shifts in the global sunflower oil export landscape. Although Argentina’s exports continue to reach record highs, production in traditional major exporting regions—Europe and the Black Sea region—has declined. This is largely due to downward revisions in yield forecasts for sunflower seeds in key producing countries.
From January to October 2025, Argentina’s sunflower oil exports reached a peak of 1.36 million tons, the highest level in recent years. This has enabled the country to consolidate its position in the global market.
Despite some difficulties caused by heavy rainfall and delays in planting activities, analysts believe that Argentina’s product supply will continue to grow in 2026.
Meanwhile, the situation in the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine is exactly the opposite. Estimates for sunflower seed harvests and processing have been lowered once again.
The forecast for global sunflower oil production in the 2025/26 season has been revised downward to 22 million tons, a reduction of 500,000 tons from the previous forecast. Global annual growth is expected to be relatively moderate, at around 1 million tons.
The production cuts and low inventories in traditional producing regions are driving a significant structural shift. The major markets—the European Union, Turkey, and India (which together account for roughly 50% of global imports)—are expected to increase their procurement volumes by at least 1 million to 1.1 million tons. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern and North African countries facing a shortage of sunflower oil will have to turn more actively toward soybean oil and palm oil.
Global sunflower oil exports for the 2025/26 season are projected at 14.8 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous year.
Analysts point out that the key issue lies in the shortage of raw materials at processing plants in the Northern Hemisphere. Export volumes are expected to decline further by another 300,000 to 400,000 tons in the fourth quarter of 2025. Consequently, sunflower oil prices for delivery over the coming period will remain firm, staying higher than those of other vegetable oils in the European market.
Previously reported, Russia's vegetable oil exports could rise by 18% in the 2025/26 marketing year. Experts estimate that Russia will continue to maintain its leading position in global sunflower oil exports.
