Rapeseed and soybeans have become new growth drivers for Russia's oil and fat industry.
2025/12/30
Russia’s oil and fat industry is actively pursuing diversification: soybeans are increasingly solidifying their position as a strategic crop, while rapeseed is emerging as a new export leader, thereby reducing reliance on sunflower seeds—the country’s sole flagship crop in recent years—and opening up new opportunities in foreign markets.
Over the past three years, despite changes in the production structure, the fats and oils industry has not only maintained record-high output levels but has also solidified its position as a key global player with export potential. Analysts at OleoScope have conducted a detailed analysis of this trend.
Sunflower oil remains the primary driver of the industry, but... After reaching a record high in 2025, production is set to decline. Although 2024 saw a historic peak of 8.2 million tons, this year’s output has already fallen by nearly 16% to 6.9 million tons. This figure is lower than the 2023 level (7.2 million tons) and represents the lowest level in the review period.
Most of the production continues to be destined for export—accounting for over 65% of total output—and by year-end, total exports will reach 4.6 million tons. This figure is 22% lower than the peak level recorded in 2024 (5.8 million tons), yet it remains sufficient to enable Russia to maintain its leading position in the global supply market. Previously, analysts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture also confirmed earlier forecasts that Russia will continue to hold its dominant role in the global trade of this product.
The domestic market is saturated and stable. Russia’s consumption of sunflower oil has remained largely steady, hovering between 2.4 million and 2.5 million tons per year over the past three years—two to two-and-a-half times lower than its export volume.
Russia's overall self-sufficiency rate for vegetable oils More than 250%.
India has been the leading buyer for three consecutive years. By the end of this year, India’s procurement volume is expected to exceed... 1 million tons, yet still just a little over half of last year’s 2.24 million tons.
Iran with With a production volume of 952,000 tons, it ranks second, surpassing Turkey (912,000 tons) and China, which has fallen out of the top three domestic buyers of its products.
Soybean oil Production The trend shows steady growth, with a 16.8% increase over three years—from 1 million tons in 2023 to 1.18 million tons in 2025. These figures reflect two key trends: an increase in soybean processing capacity and an expansion of soybean cultivation area.
Soybean production is expected to once again reach a record high this year, and preliminary harvest forecasts have already driven demand for imported South American soybeans down to historically low levels. Russia is gradually phasing out imports of genetically modified soybeans for processing and is instead shifting entirely to exporting domestically produced non-GMO soybeans.
Russia remains a net exporter of soybean oil, with exports three times the volume of domestic consumption. However, exports are expected to reach 650,000 tons by the end of this year, lower than the levels recorded in 2024 (762,000 tons) and 2023 (679,000 tons).
India remains a major importer of soybean oil, but by year-end it will still reduce its import volume from... The volume decreased from 289,000 tons to 213,000 tons. Algeria and China remained in second and third places, respectively, with import volumes of 205,000 tons (232,000 tons) and 94,000 tons (97,000 tons).
The decline in exports has been offset by growth in domestic consumption: Domestic demand has risen to... 297,000 tons, a 20% increase from two years ago.
A real breakthrough has been achieved in the rapeseed oil sector. After a decline in 2024 production—from 1.5 million tons to 1.29 million tons—production is expected to rise to 1.55 million tons in 2025, representing an increase of nearly 20%.
Similar to soybeans, the expansion of rapeseed cultivation areas and the growing global demand for rapeseed oil—particularly for biofuel production—have driven an increase in processing capacity, thereby further boosting the expansion of rapeseed cultivation areas.
By the end of this year, rapeseed oil exports are expected to reach 1.5 million tons, an increase of 29.7% over last year.
China remains the largest buyer, and its purchase volume is expected to grow year-on-year. 24%, increasing from 1.03 million tons to 1.28 million tons. Iran also jumped to second place, with its purchases rising from 30,000 tons to 34,000 tons, displacing Latvia. Norway maintained its third-place position, with purchases totaling 30,000 tons—a rise of one-quarter.
Vitaly Shamaev, Project Leader of the Agricultural Experts Program for Analyzing the Grain and Oilseed Markets It was emphasized that the growth prospects for Russian oilseed crops are long-term, and the agricultural sector’s diversification in this regard is still ongoing.
However, obstacles to Russia’s expanded production include monetary policies characterized by high-cost lending, sanctions, and export difficulties stemming from exchange rate volatility and high logistics costs. The speaker concluded that this is precisely what deters farmers from being willing to increase yields throughout the entire crop rotation cycle.
