Russia's capacity utilization rate will reach 87%.
2025/09/28
Russia’s record production forecast—including output from new regions—could boost processing capacity utilization to 87%, representing a 7% increase compared to the 2024/25 season. Mikhail Maltsev, Executive Director of the Russian Oil and Fat Union, announced these figures at the “Agroinvestor: PRO Plant Production” conference. However, these projected numbers will only materialize if domestic raw material prices remain competitive enough to meet export demand.
The spokesperson noted that, based on yield estimates, the industry expects total oilseed production to exceed 33.5 million tons. Specifically, sunflower seed production is projected at 18.5 million tons, soybean production at 7.8 million tons, and rapeseed production at 5.5 million tons.
According to alliance data, Russia's processing capacity increased from 33 million tons last year to 35.7 million tons. Oilseed production capacity utilization is expected to reach 30.9 million tons, up from 26.4 million tons in the previous season, and by the end of this quarter, capacity utilization will rise from 80% to 87%.
Total oilseed production is expected to surpass 10.5 million tons, representing a 7.5% increase from the previous season. Specifically, sunflower oil output will reach 7.3 million tons (up 2%), while rapeseed oil production will rise by 10%, totaling 1.2 million tons. Notably, soybean oil production is set to surge significantly—by 25%—reaching 2 million tons.
However, as the spokesperson pointed out, these indicators can only be achieved if domestic raw material prices remain stable—something that must be confirmed by overall harvest data and their relationship to export prices. Analysis shows that export prices have already peaked and are expected to continue fluctuating sideways. As of September 24, 2025, the price of sunflower oil delivered in September from Black Sea ports (FOB) stood at $1,155 per tonne. Meanwhile, the highest delivery price did not exceed $1,200 per tonne, while the lowest reached $1,095 per tonne. The spokesperson concluded that export prices are unlikely to experience significant volatility in the near term.
Meanwhile, on September 23, the average price of Russian sunflower seeds (including VAT) stood at 40,900 rubles, rising by more than 3,000 rubles since the beginning of the month—despite expectations of a record-breaking harvest this year. In southern Russia, soybean prices have also climbed to 40,000 rubles since the start of the month, while in central regions, they remain slightly lower at 37,000 rubles per ton. Meanwhile, soybeans in the Far East are priced at 30,000 rubles per ton.
Unlike global rapeseed prices, rapeseed prices are also on the rise. In central Russia, the price of one tonne of rapeseed reached 42,000 rubles on the same day—up by 2,000 rubles since the beginning of this month.
Prices fell only in Siberia, the main production region for oilseeds, dropping by 1,000 rubles to 35,500 rubles per ton.
Previously, the Ministry of Housing and Public Services reported that the Russian government may approve a 10% tariff on oilseed flax within the next two to three weeks.
