On the 23rd, China's domestic bean commodity market took a dramatic turn: by midday close, futures prices for soybean No. 2, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil all plunged across the board. Market observers attribute the sharp decline to the Argentine government's adjustment of its tariff policies, which has intensified bearish sentiment in the market.

Reportedly, on September 22, the Argentine government announced adjustments to its tariff policy in an effort to boost foreign exchange supplies and ease downward pressure on the peso. Effective immediately and running until October 31, the government will fully eliminate export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their processed products. Specifically, the export tariff on soybeans will be reduced from 26% to zero, while tariffs on soybean oil and soybean meal will also drop from 24.5% to zero. However, this policy comes with both a time limit—ending at the end of October—and a financial cap, set at a maximum of $7 billion. Once the tax-free quota reaches $7 billion, the exemption measures will automatically cease.

Wu Xiaojie, an agricultural products analyst at Zhongzhou Futures, stated that if tariffs are reduced to zero, China's November-cargo CNF quotes for Argentine soybeans could fall to 200 cents per bushel—about 70 cents cheaper per bushel than Brazilian soybeans—resulting in an import cost advantage of roughly 200 yuan per ton. Following Argentina's adjustment of its tariff policy, Chinese oilseed processors have responded enthusiastically, with market sources reporting that Chinese refineries reportedly purchased 10 to 15 vessels of Argentine soybeans last night.

In fact, in recent years, China has not imported significant quantities of Argentine oilseed meal—almost no soybean meal is sourced from Argentina—while imports of soybean oil have remained at just a few tens of thousands of tons. Liu Bingxin, an agricultural products analyst at Huishang Futures, noted that following Argentina's recent "time-limited discount offer," a number of domestic companies are expected to consider purchasing soybeans—or even increasing their procurement volumes. If Argentina’s price advantage persists over the long term, it could reshape China’s soybean import dynamics, intensifying competition in the South American oilseed and meal market. At the same time, U.S. soybean producers may face even tougher challenges as they struggle to maintain their market position. Following this announcement, the supply-demand gap for domestic oilseeds and meals in the fourth quarter is likely to narrow, leading to a rapid decline in prices for related commodities.

Looking at Argentina's soybean export capacity, Wu Xiaojie noted that as of mid-September, Argentina had already exported a cumulative 8.76 million tons of soybeans for 2025—compared to just 4.5 million tons during the same period last year. Considering Argentina’s historical export volumes and its domestic crushing demand, it’s estimated that an additional 2 million to 3 million tons could still be exported within the year. In terms of international market competitiveness, Argentine soybeans have significantly outperformed Brazilian soybeans during the same period, which is likely to squeeze into Brazil’s existing export space for older-crop soybeans. Meanwhile, the early arrival of Argentine soybeans in China will also reduce our country’s reliance on U.S. soybeans, potentially weighing down U.S. soybean prices. For China, without the participation of U.S. soybeans, there will be a noticeable supply gap in domestic soybean imports during the first quarter of 2026. However, if China manages to import around 3 million tons of Argentine soybeans, it could effectively help bridge this supply shortfall.

Notably, there is currently no clear indication that imports of U.S. soybeans will increase. Liu Bingxin stated that the supply gap in the domestic oilseed meal market will likely persist from the fourth quarter of this year through the first quarter of next year, prompting domestic companies to actively seek alternative sources of supply. It’s reported that following China’s imposition of temporary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola seeds in August, COFCO Group has already purchased nine shipments of canola seeds from Australia. Meanwhile, domestic spot prices remain under pressure, with the recent spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang once again falling below the 3,000 yuan/ton mark.
On the domestic market front, as domestically produced soybeans gradually enter the harvest and marketing period, prices for the first-season soybeans have continued to decline. Supported by the Central Government’s No. 1 Document, which emphasizes expanding cultivation and boosting yields of oilseed crops like soybeans, farmers are receiving substantial planting subsidies. As a result, soybean acreage has grown further this year, while favorable weather conditions in Northeast China are expected to significantly boost production.

According to Chen Chunlei, an agricultural products analyst at Hongye Futures, China's cumulative soybean imports reached 73.318 million tons in the first eight months of this year, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.03%. Among them, non-GMO soybean imports totaled 387,000 tons, a significant drop of 51.7% compared to the same period last year; in contrast, GMO soybean imports amounted to 72.929 million tons, up 4.67% from the previous year. To brace for uncertainties arising from trade tensions, domestic companies proactively over-purchased Brazilian soybeans earlier than usual, ensuring ample raw material supplies for oil plants during the third quarter. However, ongoing uncertainties remain in future economic and trade negotiations. Meanwhile, Argentina recently eliminated export tariffs on soybeans and soybean meal, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of its soybeans and attracting Chinese buyers to ramp up procurement efforts.

Looking ahead, Chen Chunlei believes that, from the perspective of downstream farming demand, hog and poultry inventories remain relatively high, keeping soybean meal feed demand strong. However, domestic soybean production has increased significantly, leading to ample soybean meal supplies and mounting inventory pressures. Additionally, future imports of Argentine soybeans and soybean meal are likely to rise, suggesting that soybean meal prices are expected to trend weaker in the near term.